The yellowhammer dossier

August 21, 2019
Possibly the biggest story so far in the Brexit drama. The Sunday Times of August 18th obtains and publishes the government’s classified ‘yellowhammer’ report in full.
The headline reads ‘Operation Chaos: Whitehall’s secret no-deal plan leaked’. Across pages 2-3 is a quote from ‘a cabinet office source’: ‘This is not project fear it’s what we face after no-deal’.
The credibility of the leaked materials is reinforced by its appearance, hastily composed sheets, each page of which is replicated and emblazoned with a red OFFICIAL SENSITIVE stamp. The pages are surrounded with synoptic analyses of each of its fifteen points, by a team led by the investigative journalists Rosamund Urwin and Caroline Wheeler.
The consequences of a no-deal Brexit are chillingly outlined in a base scenario, and fifteen key planning assumptions. The journalists emphasise that the documents ‘set out the most likely aftershocks of a no-deal Brexit rather than worse-case scenarios’.
This has not prevented government spokespersons from referring it as a worse-case and highly unlikely scenario. Among them, James Cleverley has been in broken-record mode since.
Five critical areas
In essence the report highlight five critical areas to be addressed in the event of a no-deal Brexit:
‘types of fresh food supply will decrease’
‘Traffic caused by border delays could affect fuel distribution’
‘Medical supplies will be vulnerable to severe delays’
‘Channel port disruptions worse for 3 months before improving to around 50-70 percent’
‘N Ireland disruption is likely to result in protests’.
The significance of the report
Prior to the boisterous age of Social Media, The Sunday Times was accepted as a highly distinguished investigative newspaper. Recently, the credibility of such reports are dismissed, along with those of ‘so-called experts’ . One such dismissive voice Michael Gove is now the chair of the committee with ‘full control over Operation Yellowhammer chairing the Brexit war cabinet from No 10 Downing Street.
However, the authenticity of the report has not been denied. It has added credibility as coming from a newspaper not among the flag-bearers for opposition to the Government. If The Guardian, The Mirror or The Huffington Post had obtained the scoop it could be more easily dismissed.
In one way there is some comfort in the fact that the report has become public knowledge. it is in the nature of social science that awareness permits action and change. The tireless efforts of Michael Gove and the Brexit war cabinet will no doubt be redoubled to do what remains possible in the few months available to them.
Where does Boris Johnson come into all this? 
Curiously, it is hard to see what any leader can do regardless of charisma, insight, or credibility to influence the short-term consequences of a ‘no ifs no buts Brexit’ he has committed to.
To be continued …

The sport we love: How much have we been in denial over doping?

April 5, 2016

I believed, like many others, that taking performance-enhancing drugs was a problem for a minority of people in a minority of sports.  It is increasingly clear that I have been in a state of denial for many years

Like some hideous conspiracy project, the extent of the problem is revealing itself more and more.

“What do you think about [****] ?” Someone asked me yesterday.Tudor Rickards   He was referring to one of the high-profile cases in a sport he knew I was interested in.

“Unfortunate” I said uneasily.  “A career ruined”

“… and [****]?” He mentioned another sporting superstar whose name is a global brand.

“There have been accusations for some years” I admitted.  “But some people are looking at exceptional performances as proof of drug-taking. ”

He nodded.

 Within hours, another story broke 

Read the rest of this entry »