Steve Richards writing in The Independent states that there are ‘iron laws that apply if a party wants to dislodge a leader’. While I would prefer the term working principles, the three ‘laws’ he propounds make a great deal of sense.
He argues that for a successful coup:
1 There has to be at least one popular alternative candidate
2 the risks are considerably lower than those for retaining the incumbent leader
3 The coup must not generate bloody internal battles.